Disastrous Title Defences

After winning Game 02 in his debut season, Scott Symonds’ Title Defence this year hasn’t been the strongest so far, so I thought we should take a look at Title Defences of the past and see what they look like…

Every Champion has always returned in the following game to play again – so a title has always been defended.

Game 01 of this season is the 17th version or Premier Predictions which has been played. There are fourteen previous games that can be used reliably to judge previous defences. For clarity, a Title Defence is a players performance in the next game after being crowned champion, and it should be born in mind we have two games per season.

Every Champion has always returned in the following game to play again – so a title has always been defended. Data from the first ever game is patchy, so we can’t say with any certainty who the champion was.

All of the previous Overall tables can be found on the Premier Predictions History page and the data spoken about here can be found at the bottom of the article.

The Best Title Defences

In the early days of Premier Predictions Mike Hodgson won three back-to-back-to-back titles…

Clearly the best title defence is one where the title has been won again – this has happened on just two occasions and in fact by the same player. In the early days of Premier Predictions Mike Hodgson won three back-to-back-to-back titles from the start of the 2012/13 season until Christmas of the 2013/14 season.

Mike would have to wait a further five years (Game 01 of 2018/19) before winning another title and adding a fourth star to his name.

Average Title Defences

I felt we needed a way to judge how good a Title Defence was, so I came up with ‘% Points of the Champion’…

I felt we needed a way to judge how good a Title Defence was, so I came up with ‘% Points of the Champion’ (%PotC). It’s quite a simple calculation and looks like this… =(Final Points of Defending Champion/Final Points of Champion)… as an example if the Defending Champion scored 117 points and the new Champion scored 134, then the %PotC would be 87% (117/134) as was the case for Mike at the end of his back-to-back-to-back run.

As it goes, 87% %PotC isn’t a bad effort at all. In the first eight defences the average %PotC was 93%. Since the start of the 2016/17 season though the average has really fallen quite a lot due to poor Title Defences, particularly in new seasons.

Dreadful Title Defences

Craig Ellis in Game 01… was also the lowest finishing position of a defending Champion…

The worst Title Defences have all come since the start of the 2016/17 season. In Game 01 of that year Dave Mason posted the worst %PotC so far. After winning Game 02 of 2015/16 (the season Leicester were crowned Champions) Dave was only able to finish a lowly 17th place – just one spot from bottom. His score of 90 compared to the Champion’s (Jamie Sawyer) 156 returning a %PotC of 58%.

At the start of the following season (another Game 01) Gareth Bridges posted a %PotC of 81% – the third lowest so far. His 16th place out of 21 was achieved with 127 points compared to the table topping 157 scored by Jamie Sawyer (again!).

The second worst %PotC seen so far was that of Craig Ellis in Game 01 (yes, another Game 01!!) of last season. It was also the lowest finishing position of a defending Champion – 31 of 35. His 117 points represented a %PotC of 69%.

Scott’s Defence in this Game

Scott isn’t having a great defence to his title…

As mentioned in the introduction, Scott isn’t having a great defence to his title, but just how bad is it? Well, he’s bagged 44 points and sits in 25th place (of 30 players). As we know Martin Hayman is currently running away with it on 71 points – this would give Scott a %PotC of just 62% – the second worst ever.

If Martin wasn’t running away with things and second place Gareth was actually top with 62, then Scott’s %PotC would be a reasonable 88%. Obviously there’s still some way to go and I know Scott remains completely engaged in the game, so maybe we’ll see a second half surge in the game for him.

Table of Data

SeasonGameDefending ChampionPosition%PotC
2012/13Game 01Simon Allen397%
2012/13Game 02Mike Hodgson1100%
2013/14Game 01Mike Hodgson1100%
2013/14Game 02Mike Hodgson687%
2014/15Game 01Simon Allen487%
2014/15Game 02Dan Jewell491%
2015/16Game 01Simon Allen298%
2015/16Game 02Darren Bellamy983%
2016/17Game 01Dave Mason1758%
2016/17Game 02Jamie Sawyer594%
2017/18Game 01Gareth Bridges1681%
2017/18Game 02Jamie Sawyer592%
2018/19Game 01Craig Ellis3169%
2018/19Game 02Mike Hodgson688%

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